Derive the per-measured-qubit flip-rule failure on 21 Oct calibration-1 data (the numbers quoted in PLAN_FLIP.md, flip-readable guard). Heuremen LLC, Wayfinder and Bones, 22 October 2026. Read-only on control_run/iqjob_.json + iqraw_.npz. DATA: every CAL state '1' pub (both copies; register c, 156 columns), 2 x 2000 = 4000 shots per qubit; CAL state '0' likewise for the 0 cluster. INDEXING: column = PHYSICAL qubit number (the calibration circuit measures qubit q into clbit q); measured qubits = rec['E'] (physical numbers). CLUSTERS (as analyze_iq.py): mu0, mu1 = mean of ALL cal-0 / cal-1 shots; t = projection on mu1 - mu0; cov0 from cal-0 shots with t < 0.5, cov1 from cal-1 shots with t > 0.5; 'inside' = Mahalanobis distance < 3.5. RULES on each prepared-1 shot: PLAN (the rule PLAN_FLIP.md quoted, and analyze_flip.py's flip rule): FAIL = inside the 0 cluster OR not inside the 1 cluster A not inside the 1 cluster B inside the 0 cluster (whether or not also inside 1) BOTH inside both clusters P reads 0 by projection (t < 0.5) ============================================================================================ ibm_kingston: cal-0 pubs [1, 22], cal-1 pubs [21, 26], 4000 prepared-1 shots per qubit, 39 measured qubits PLAN rule over measured qubits: mean 4.1%, median 2.6%, max 12.2%, > 20%: 0 top 6 by PLAN : q99 12.2%, q32 11.8%, q35 10.4%, q14 10.1%, q120 9.7%, q142 9.3% top 6 by A not-in-1 : q85 5.5%, q120 2.8%, q35 2.7%, q145 2.6%, q63 2.4%, q99 2.3% top 6 by P reads-0 : q85 4.7%, q120 3.8%, q35 3.5%, q99 3.4%, q32 3.2%, q63 2.8% qubit PLAN A B BOTH P (top 6 by PLAN rule, all columns) 99 12.2% 2.3% 12.0% 9.8% 3.4% 32 11.8% 1.8% 11.7% 10.0% 3.2% 35 10.4% 2.7% 10.2% 7.8% 3.5% 14 10.1% 1.8% 9.8% 8.3% 2.7% 120 9.7% 2.8% 9.4% 6.9% 3.8% 142 9.3% 1.6% 9.2% 7.8% 2.4% ============================================================================================ ibm_marrakesh: cal-0 pubs [1, 22], cal-1 pubs [21, 26], 4000 prepared-1 shots per qubit, 39 measured qubits PLAN rule over measured qubits: mean 9.7%, median 3.1%, max 98.9%, > 20%: 3 top 6 by PLAN : q82 98.9%, q100 76.8%, q119 71.4%, q138 11.3%, q135 10.5%, q92 8.7% top 6 by A not-in-1 : q119 45.9%, q92 8.6%, q138 4.9%, q120 4.7%, q82 4.4%, q38 3.5% top 6 by P reads-0 : q119 48.3%, q82 45.9%, q92 8.8%, q138 5.9%, q100 5.1%, q120 3.7% qubit PLAN A B BOTH P (top 6 by PLAN rule, all columns) 82 98.9% 4.4% 95.2% 94.5% 45.9% 100 76.8% 2.8% 76.4% 74.0% 5.1% 119 71.4% 45.9% 47.8% 25.4% 48.3% 138 11.3% 4.9% 11.0% 6.4% 5.9% 135 10.5% 2.0% 10.3% 8.5% 3.5% 92 8.7% 8.6% 8.0% 0.1% 8.8% ============================================================================================ ibm_fez: cal-0 pubs [1, 22], cal-1 pubs [21, 26], 4000 prepared-1 shots per qubit, 39 measured qubits PLAN rule over measured qubits: mean 5.5%, median 3.4%, max 24.0%, > 20%: 1 top 6 by PLAN : q149 24.0%, q63 19.8%, q32 16.9%, q135 16.0%, q53 13.2%, q60 13.0% top 6 by A not-in-1 : q11 5.4%, q149 5.1%, q63 5.1%, q89 3.5%, q0 2.7%, q32 2.6% top 6 by P reads-0 : q149 7.8%, q63 7.1%, q11 5.8%, q32 5.5%, q89 4.1%, q0 3.3% qubit PLAN A B BOTH P (top 6 by PLAN rule, all columns) 149 24.0% 5.1% 23.8% 18.9% 7.8% 63 19.8% 5.1% 19.5% 14.8% 7.1% 32 16.9% 2.6% 16.7% 14.2% 5.5% 135 16.0% 1.3% 15.7% 14.7% 3.0% 53 13.2% 1.5% 13.1% 11.7% 2.8% 60 13.0% 1.8% 12.8% 11.2% 3.2%